In the past week, Democrats’ odds of keeping control of the Senate after the midterms have ticked up to around 60 percent, according to our Deluxe forecast model. In this installment of “Model Talk” on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to this change. They also ask whether there is reason to expect the current environment to hold as we get closer to Election Day and whether we should be skeptical of the polls showing Democrats performing well in parts of the Midwest where polls have repeatedly underestimated Republicans.
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