Alabama is the preseason No. 1 in both the USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll and the Associated Press poll released Monday.
That’s not surprising considering in the last 13 years Alabama has won six national championships and finished second in three other coaches polls, including the past season where they ended second behind Georgia.
What might be surprising is how often Alabama has finished first after being named a preseason No. 1 in our poll.
Since the 2010 season, the Crimson Tide has been a preseason No. 1 seven times in the USA TODAY coaches poll, including this season. They finished at the top of the poll in only one of those years.
Yes, winning a championship doesn’t rest on what a panel of 66 head coaches at Football Bowl Subdivision schools say in August, but the outcomes of these past 31 years offer some intriguing insights.
Alabama isn’t alone in falling short of our coaches’ preseason predictions.
Since USA TODAY started administering the poll for the 1991 season, the coaches have correctly guessed the post-season No. 1 just four times – about 13% of the preseason polls. Only twice have teams held the No. 1 position throughout: Florida State in 1999 and Southern California in 2004.
In the 511 coaches’ votes in USA TODAY Sports AFCA poll history, teams from the Southeastern Conference and Atlantic Coast Conference have received nearly 60% of the votes.
Until Georgia’s run last season, only 10 schools had double-digit weeks in first place: Alabama, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, LSU, Miami, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Southern California.
But for more than 6½ years (since Nov. 15, 2015), Clemson or an SEC team topped the coaches poll.
Much of the SEC’s dominance can be linked to the Crimson Tide. Alabama has held a No.1 ranking in nearly every season since their 2008 campaign. Since Nov. 2, 2008, they’ve been 1st in half of the 220 polls.
Still, it’s been the years where they’ve started at No. 2 or lower where they have brought home the national championship trophy and finish atop the coaches’ poll.
Since the start of the College Football Playoff national championship in 2014, no team ranked 7th or lower in the preseason has won the national championship.
So which teams are likely in the mix this year? Here’s the coaches’ poll top 10.
Auburn has been ranked No. 1 in only one poll – the one that really matters. At the end of the 2010-11 season, they defeated previous No. 1 Oregon in the BCS national championship game.
The Tigers started the year ranked 23rd – the lowest of any team to top the post-season poll. Their challenging path to national championship included wins over Clemson and the SEC elite, such as LSU, Georgia and Alabama.
Conversely, that’s one preseason No. 1 that Alabama would not like to repeat.
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