The man who used to occupy the Oval Office has been holding rallies and endorsing candidates across the country this primary season. And this past week provided crucial tests of his influence, from Michigan down to Kansas, across to Arizona and up to Washington state.
It is with Trump’s strength within the Republican Party that we begin our weekly journey into the numbers.
The former President has been quite successful this primary season in GOP contests with no incumbents or those featuring two sitting lawmakers because of redistricting. By my count, his candidates have won slightly less than 90% of contested primaries for governor or Congress that had either no incumbents or two incumbents because of redistricting.
That’s a strong number, though down from the 96% of such primaries his candidates won in the 2020 cycle.
But even Newhouse’s advancement proves the point that Trump remains a power center in the GOP. As of Sunday, Newhouse was pulling in a little more than 25% of the primary vote and only 34% of those who voted for a Republican candidate in the district. That is incredibly weak for a sitting member of Congress.
The non-Trump candidates to have done so in the modern primary era appear to be Democrats Al Gore, in 1998, and Hillary Clinton, in 2014. Both went on to win their party’s nomination in the next presidential election.
The closest Republicans were George H.W. Bush in 1986 and George W. Bush in 1998. Both were polling in the low 40s and would go on to win the GOP nomination.
While it is true Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been gaining on Trump nationally, he’s still about 25 points behind him.
Perhaps the best way to understand Trump’s standing in the GOP is to look at the verbs “could” and “will”. Trump could be beat if he decides to run for the Republican nomination. He will, however, be tough to beat.
A hazy picture three months before Election Day
Before we get ahead of ourselves with all this 2024 talk, there’s a big election to be held this year! The 2022 midterms are only about three months away, and the picture has become more uncertain as we approach the date.
Moreover, there are other issues besides the economy at play. Abortion may not rank as high on the list of voter priorities as the economy, but more Americans than at any point since at least 1984 say it is a top problem.
Answering the question of who will control Congress next year has become muddled in another way as well: The House and the Senate may be controlled by different parties.
The bottom line is people who are into elections are in for an exciting final three months of the 2022 campaign.
