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INDIANAPOLIS — While pursuing his accelerated MBA in the Mendoza College of Business last fall, former Notre Dame linebacker Adam Shibley gave a presentation in Professor Patrick Gibbons’ class.
Shibley, then a graduate transfer from the University of Michigan, laid out the case for Notre Dame to surrender its football independence and join the Big Ten Conference in all sports, not just hockey.
“I got an A,” Shibley said this week at Big Ten Media Days. “People liked it. Obviously, I’m a bit biased, but I’ve always been an advocate for it. Notre Dame is a perfect option.”
The subject matter seems particularly prescient given the events of the past month. With USC and UCLA set to push the Big Ten to 16 members by the fall of 2024, the era of mega-conferences is upon us.
Just as Shibley prepares to begin a two-year fellowship in the Big Ten office, where he will conduct research projects and meet regularly with Commissioner Kevin Warren, an age-old question has again reached a fever pitch.
Is Notre Dame better off remaining independent as a football power or should it make the jump into full conference affiliation?
And if it does the latter, shouldn’t that be into a league like the Big Ten that shares its academic, athletic and geographic profile more snugly than, say, the partial arrangement Notre Dame has enjoyed with the Atlantic Coast Conference since 2014?
“It would be really cool to see it get done,” Shibley said, “and I think Commissioner Warren is the perfect guy to get that done.”
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Elephant in the dome
Put aside for a moment the “grant of rights” agreement with ESPN that handcuffs all ACC football schools through 2036. That deal could still get reworked, and even if it’s not, Notre Dame’s de facto exit fee would likely be far more modest than it would be for full ACC members.
Everywhere you turned for those two days at Lucas Oil Stadium, it seemed Notre Dame was the elephant in the dome.
Even as ActionNetwork.com reported six schools beyond Notre Dame were under consideration by the Big Ten – Oregon, Washington, Stanford and California out of the Pac-12, Miami and Florida State out of the ACC – the Irish remained at the forefront of the public discussion.
Former Wisconsin football coach and athletic director Barry Alvarez, finishing up his first year as Big Ten special advisor for football, shared his perspective as a former Irish defensive assistant from 1987-89. He noted several times that trips to both coasts as well as Texas would remind Lou Holtz’s coaching staff back then of the widespread appeal of the program.
“I could see the magnitude of their fan base and how important being independent is,” Alvarez said. “I don’t know what’s going to happen with leagues as they continue to expand. Is it going to be harder to schedule? I don’t know that, but that’s something that has to be considered.”
Ticking off all the necessary attributes for any potential Big Ten additions, Alvarez didn’t name his former employer in South Bend. He didn’t have to.
“The profile of the school has to fit the profile of the Big Ten,” he said. “Academics are important, brand. You have to bring something to the party … whether it’s eyeballs or whether it’s location.”
Coming off five straight 10-win seasons, Notre Dame football has never been in a better negotiating position in the sport’s modern era. If USC and UCLA were granted full revenue shares of the impending TV rights deal Warren has been negotiating, imagine what sort of sweeteners the Irish could demand.
“These two schools that we just added, they bring L.A.,” Alvarez said. “They are brand-name schools that have had success, have a great tradition. Academically, they’re strong. So, they bring a lot. They bring a lot to the league.”
Doing the math
CBS Sports reported it could take an annual figure of $75 million for Notre Dame to re-up with NBC when its current deal ends in 2025. That would mark a five-fold increase on average over what’s in place, although such deals are typically backloaded.
Should the Big Ten push out to 20 members, Irish or no Irish, $1.5 billion per year in broadcast rights would work out to $75 million per institution.
Warren, a 1990 graduate of Notre Dame Law School, wisely declined to give a range for where the Big Ten’s new broadcast rights deal might fall. However, $75 million per school on an annual basis feels about right.
“I don’t think it’s any secret,” Illinois athletic director Josh Whitman said. “Everybody feels like Notre Dame would be a great addition to the Big Ten Conference for a long list of reasons. But ultimately, of course, they’re got their own decisions they need to make.”
Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick isn’t one to act rashly, regardless of the circumstances. Considering the lack of clarity on future expansion of the College Football Playoff – and Notre Dame’s oft-stated ability to “maintain viable access” into it, whether the playoff settles at eight, 12 or even 16 teams – it seems wisest to wait until the dust settles.
“They exist in a very unique place in college athletics,” Whitman said. “We certainly respect the tradition of independence that they’ve enjoyed for a really long time, and they’ll make those decisions that are in their own best interests at the time that they think is most appropriate. We’ll be there to have conversations as they may want to have conversations.”
Asked to share his elevator pitch to Swarbrick, Whitman laughed.
“I don’t know that I’m the one that needs to be making the elevator pitch,” he said as he enters his seventh fall on the job. “I think the Big Ten is just really well positioned right now to take full advantage of the changing landscape in college athletics. It does feel like there’s a consolidation underfoot. It feels like these affiliations are going to be really critical to future programmatic success.
“Geographically, of course, we’re an obvious fit for what they do. I think philosophically we align well with a lot of the things that I understand from Notre Dame. But again, everybody makes their own decisions in their own timeline.”
In the meantime, Warren and Swarbrick might want to request a copy of Shibley’s class presentation from last fall. At this stage in what has become an incredibly high-stakes poker game, those two savvy power brokers need all the data points they can gather.
Mike Berardino covers Notre Dame football for the South Bend Tribune and NDInsider.com. Follow him on Twitter @MikeBerardino.
