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As earnings season hits its stride, investors are likely to care more about management commentary and strategy changes than bottom line results, according to Deutsche Bank. The firm’s strategists, led by Binky Chadha, said in a note to clients Tuesday that how CEOs are approaching the slowing economy is the biggest variable for the market during the second-quarter reports. “We think it is unlikely the market sells off further merely on weaker earnings or guidance cuts as those are now widely expected. The market has usually (75%) rallied during earnings season, especially following a selloff and when investor positioning is very low going into the earnings season as is the case presently. … Rather, what could drive a market selloff in our view are signs of corporate risk aversion, in particular large cost cutting measures or changes in capital spending plans,” the note said. The downturn in the U.S. economy has become a front-of-mind concern for investors in recent months. Bank of America economists now predict a “mild recession ” for the U.S. this year. Meanwhile, inflation remains elevated near 40-year highs , making cost-control a pressing issue for companies. “Macro growth slowed late in the quarter, making it harder for companies to press levers in response,” the Deutsche Bank note said. There are already signs that major companies are planning to pare back spending. Google-parent Alphabet announced that it would slow hiring through 2023 to hold down costs, joining several other large tech companies. Tesla is laying off about 3.5% of its workers. Bank executives, meanwhile, are signaling their concern about economic activity by building their loan loss reserves . Notable earnings next week include IBM and Goldman Sachs on Monday, Johnson & Johnson and Netflix on Tuesday and Tesla on Wednesday. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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