In the poll, Trump led a hypothetical 2024 GOP field with 49%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 25%. No other potential candidate — including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, former Vice President Mike Pence and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley — received double-digit support.
And among those who voted for Trump in 2020 and had a “very” favorable opinion of each of the contenders — effectively a measure of passion from the party base — Trump (46%) and DeSantis (44%) had almost identical numbers.
“The survey suggests that Mr. Trump would not necessarily enter a primary with an insurmountable advantage over rivals like Mr. DeSantis. His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race, when she was viewed as the inevitable frontrunner, but ultimately found herself embroiled in a protracted primary against Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.”
I totally agree.
It’s also worth considering two other things:
To be clear: If Trump runs (and there is every reason to believe he will), he is still the front-runner to be the Republican nominee.
But no longer does the race look like a walk-over for Trump.
