It does not seem that there will be a rush for one or two mega-conferences to swallow up what we’ve come to know as the Power Five. That may happen eventually.
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The current state of conference realignment would best be described as a strategic pause.
In the aftermath of USC and UCLA bolting the Pac-12 for the Big Ten — an unexpected earthquake whose shockwaves are still being felt nearly three weeks later — it does not seem there will be a rush for one or two mega-conferences to swallow up what we’ve come to know as the Power Five. That may happen eventually, but the current posture of the Big Ten and SEC seems to be more passive as both leagues crunch numbers and discuss with consultants whether there are any moves that might increase their revenue enough to make adding members worthwhile.
That will be a difficult bar to clear, at least in the short term. USA TODAY Sports has spoken with 14 people who have insight into realignment in a variety of roles across various conferences, granting them anonymity so they could convey what they are seeing and hearing as accurately as possible without betraying confidential discussions being held within every league and athletic department across the country.
The five key points that follow are a composite of those conversations, intended to bring at least a modicum of clarity to a confusing and rapidly changing landscape.
1. Notre Dame holds the cards now
Whenever there’s a shift in the fundamental structure of college sports, the notion that Notre Dame will finally be forced to join a football conference gains steam. But decade after decade, it turns out not to be true — and probably won’t be this time, either.
You can be sure that the major realignment moves of the last 12 months, including Texas and Oklahoma accepting membership in the SEC, have sparked some serious internal discussions at Notre Dame about the best path forward and what college sports might look like years down the road. But the nice thing about being Notre Dame is that it currently has enough scheduling clout and financial strength to maintain the status quo. As long as Notre Dame has access to whatever version of the postseason comes after 2025, when the current College Football Playoff contract expires, it doesn’t have to make any drastic moves.
If the Irish feel like joining the Big Ten is in its best interest, the Big Ten would love to have them. That could certainly be the kind of realignment whammy that provokes an aggressive response from the SEC and puts college sports onto the path of realignment Armageddon.
At the moment, though, the safer bet is that Notre Dame stands pat, or at least exercises extreme patience before giving up something that has been central to its institutional identity and mission since the beginning.
2. If Notre Dame stays independent, then what?
The reality is that only a small number of programs at this point would bring enough television value to either the SEC or Big Ten that would make them worth adding. Some of them (think North Carolina, potentially Virginia, Florida State, Clemson, etc.) are in the ACC, which has some antsy schools given that they could be making less than half the television revenue of their Big Ten counterparts, but also has a grant of media rights agreement in effect through 2036. The grant of rights is exactly what it says — ACC schools have given the league their broadcast rights to sell collectively. Getting out of that agreement could be legally tricky and extremely expensive — potentially $500 million.
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Is there an athletic department that would essentially be willing to operate as revenue neutral for perhaps five years or more until being made whole as a Big Ten or SEC member? It’s not inconceivable, but it’s difficult — unless the ACC completely dissolves, which also seems unlikely. (A reminder that it’s probably in ESPN’s best interests to keep the ACC going given that its current contract is favorable to the network.)
Given that reality, the SEC and Big Ten are probably going to end up in a bit of a holding pattern, perhaps for years. But at some point, as the length of the ACC’s grant of rights dwindles and the cost to break it decreases, the equation could change.
3. The ACC will try to get creative in the meantime
From the very beginning of this saga, smart people in college sports have suggested that the ACC may look to the West as it tries to stave off poaching. Whether that means some type of strategic/broadcasting partnership with the suddenly weakened Pac-12 or a full-on expansion remains unclear. But you can bet commissioner Jim Phillips is doing everything he can to not only settle his membership but get ESPN back to the table for some type of renegotiation of a broadcasting deal that, in its current form, locks those schools into a financially disastrous contract relative to their peers in the SEC and Big Ten.
4. The real intrigue is happening between Pac-12 and Big 12
Here’s the reality of the situation for the remaining schools that were abandoned by USC and UCLA: They just don’t have that much value to the Big Ten at the moment and aren’t a priority in realignment. That includes Oregon, which not only has built a legitimately important football program over the last couple of decades but also Nike founder Phil Knight, who is shaking trees all over the country looking for a good spot for his beloved Ducks to land.
There are still several ways this could go for the Pac-12 leftovers.
Perhaps commissioner George Kliavkoff can keep the remaining 10 schools together and add some others. (San Diego State? Boise State? Colorado State?) But the reality is that USC and UCLA leaving sufficiently crushed the league’s television value as it enters negotiations for its next contract. That long-term stability will be difficult to manufacture without some kind of drastic, outside-the-box move.
Reports last week that the Big 12 was in intense discussions to invite several Pac-12 schools were overblown, but it’s certainly something being studied by new commissioner Brett Yormark. Adding Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State, for instance, would make geographic sense and give the league some added pop as it enters its own round of television negotiations in a post-Oklahoma and Texas world. Could the Big 12 think even bigger and absorb even more of the Pac-12, if not the whole lot of them?
The Big 12’s advantage, ironically enough, is that none of its current schools would be realistic expansion candidates right now for the Big Ten or SEC. There’s something to be said for joining a league whose most important schools are happy to be there and not desperate to jump ship (looking at you, Washington and Oregon).
5. The future of the CFP is up in the air
When negotiations to expand the College Football Playoff before the current contract expires in 2025 officially fell apart earlier this year, the ACC and Pac-12 had no idea their leverage was about to disappear completely.
This much is clear: If the CFP continues beyond 2025 — whether it’s four, eight or 12 teams — the SEC and Big Ten will be dictating the terms of engagement. Automatic bids for conference winners? Almost certainly off the table. Equal revenue shares? Ha.
And what happens if the Big Ten and SEC can’t agree on how it should be structured? You could envision a scenario where they both take their ball and go home. Maybe those leagues hold their own playoffs. Maybe we’ll end up back in the bowl era where a poll determines the national champion. It’s hard to say at this point.
But realignment uncertainty and the consolidation of power in two leagues have undoubtedly made playoff expansion conversations more fraught and unpredictable. When the 12-team proposal was unveiled last summer, people like SEC commissioner Greg Sankey characterized it as a sacrifice for his league in the name of doing what’s best for college football. It seems unlikely those leaders will ever again take such a magnanimous posture.
Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Dan Wolken on Twitter @DanWolken.
