Ruy Teixeira: “Get started with this: when Democrats convince a voter to change aspects, that nets two votes for the Democrats (one much less for the Republicans, another for the Democrats). When Democrats prove another voter to vote Democratic this is, after all, a internet of just one vote for them.”
“But it surely’s actually worse than that. Generally, Democrats bring to mind higher base turnout on the subject of turning out extra electorate from quite a lot of pro-Democratic demographic teams—younger electorate, black electorate, Hispanic electorate, college-educated whites, no matter. However no longer all of the electorate in those teams prefer the Democrats so mobilization of extra electorate from a given workforce would possibly neatly internet not up to one vote in keeping with further voter. For instance, taking a look at present Congressional poll personal tastes, Democrats would possibly internet just a 3rd of a vote for each and every further Hispanic or younger voter, six-tenths of a vote from each and every further black voter and only a 6th of a vote from each and every further college-educated white voter.”
“The mathematics seems much more destructive when the next is regarded as: Democrats have a tendency to think that nonvoters from a given demographic are the similar politically as electorate from the similar workforce… except for they don’t vote. However a mountain of political science proof displays that’s no longer so.”
