The worst Democratic gerrymander within the nation is arguably in Illinois, because it prompt a high-stakes sport of musical chairs some of the state’s 5 Republican Space contributors.
Nathaniel Rakich:One among our best presidents, Abraham Lincoln, was once a Republican from Illinois. However the state’s new gerrymandered congressional map turns out hell-bent on making Republican congressmen from Illinois an endangered species.
There are these days 5 Republicans in Illinois’s U.S. Space delegation. However that was once it appears too many for the Democrats who have been in command of Illinois redistricting closing fall. They drew a map that packed all 5 Republicans into simply 3 congressional districts.
That kicked off a high-stakes sport of electoral musical chairs. To start with, Congressman Mike Bost and Congresswoman Mary Miller have been thrown in combination into the twelfth District, whilst Congressman Rodney Davis was once on my own within the fifteenth District. However the far-right Miller it appears made up our minds she had a greater shot of staying in Congress if she ran for reelection within the fifteenth in opposition to Davis, who’s extra average. In the meantime, over within the sixteenth District, Congressmen Darin LaHood and Adam Kinzinger have been additionally double-bunked, a scenario that was once best resolved when Kinzinger made up our minds to not search reelection.
Consequently, Democrats may just hang 14 of Illinois’s 17 congressional seats after the 2022 election. That’s 82 % of seats, although they’ll almost certainly win not up to 60 % of the state’s in style vote. That’s conceivable best as a result of what number of Republican votes are “wasted” underneath the brand new map — both as a result of they’re being forged in a district that’s already safely purple or as a result of they’re outnumbered via Democratic votes. Both method, the ones votes don’t rely towards a win.
In accordance with the 2020 presidential election effects, this map wastes 1.9 million Republican votes. That’s virtually two times the choice of Democratic votes which might be wasted underneath the map.
Theoretically, if Republicans and Democrats had the similar choice of wasted votes in Illinois, Republicans would win 2.2 extra congressional seats than underneath a gerrymander of this caliber. By means of that measure, Illinois is the worst gerrymander within the nation drawn via Democrats.
Illinois’s competitive gerrymander is a large a part of the rationale Democrats have received seats from redistricting national this yr. However it might additionally backfire. As a way to draw such a lot of blue seats, Democrats needed to unfold their citizens skinny, leaving some districts with just a small Democratic lean. If Republicans have a robust 2022 election, they may finally end up profitable no longer best their 3 safely purple seats but in addition the ones light-blue seats. This gerrymander may just finally end up being the most important blunder in Illinois since Mrs. O’Leary’s cow knocked over that lantern.
To make certain, this map will possibly assist Democrats of their quest to carry onto the Space. However it’s additionally conceivable that they’ve bitten off greater than they are able to bite.
