It won’t occur once any person would really like, however in the end MLB’s labour dispute will succeed in a answer and the game will transfer forward with the 2022 common season — or a minimum of what’s left of it. The timeline can be fast, with shotgun spring coaching camps in Florida and Arizona most probably opening inside per week of a brand new CBA being ratified, and opening day looming someplace three-to-four weeks past that.
That can depart entrance places of work scrambling to fill big-league roster holes once MLB’s transaction freeze is lifted, most probably spurring the type of wild job that invigorated the game closing November. And the Toronto Blue Jays can be appropriate within the thick of it, searching for to place the completing touches on a win-now workforce being built to surpass the 91-win mark it accomplished closing season.
With that during thoughts, that is the primary of a three-part collection taking a look on the largest roster wishes closing for the 2022 Blue Jays and the way the membership’s entrance place of job may just cross about addressing them at the different aspect of the lockout. Test again later this week for portions two and 3.
All ZIPS projections by means of FanGraphs.
All arbitration projections by means of MLB Industry Rumors.
The desire: Infield improve
The place issues lately stand (FanGraphs ZIPS projections)
Whilst you lay it out like this, it turns into abundantly transparent why the Blue Jays completely should upload an infielder — a horny excellent one, at that — previous to opening day. For starters, the Blue Jays were on the lookout for a productive, on a regular basis 3rd baseman since 2018, when Josh Donaldson ignored lots of the season with damage prior to being traded. A motley workforce of 10 gamers have made a minimum of 70 plate appearances as 3rd basemen for the Blue Jays over the 4 seasons since — none of whom have caught.
That want stays. However now, with Marcus Semien a Texas Ranger, there are 86 extra-base hits and six.6 fWAR of 2021 manufacturing to switch at 2d base on peak of it. Because the Blue Jays proved closing season, when the membership’s 3rd basemen produced a .692 OPS jointly, it’s imaginable to have a top-five offence whilst receiving meager manufacturing from one infield place. However it’d be awfully demanding when weighed down by means of two.
The tandem of Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal are at this time situated to obtain the majority of enjoying time at 2d and 3rd base, respectively. That’s advantageous if you happen to’re making a bet on a considerable leap again from Biggio, who struggled to an 84 wRC+ over an injury-plagued 2021, and linear extrapolation from Espinal, who quietly posted a 115 wRC+ over 246 plate appearances closing season however has but to turn out himself over a bigger pattern in opposition to upper-level pageant.
The issue is each gamers generated below-average high quality of touch numbers, which contributed to anticipated statistics that stand in stark distinction to the true numbers they produced. That makes it tough to undertaking both participant to accomplish significantly higher in 2022, let by myself come on the subject of changing the top-shelf manufacturing Semien took to Texas.
Which isn’t to mention they may be able to’t play a job on a a success workforce. Biggio’s strike zone judgment is elite, permitting him to succeed in base at a .354 profession clip. Espinal hardly ever moves out, posting a very good touch charge in an generation when hitters are whiffing greater than ever. The ones characteristics are undeniably helpful. They’re simply higher fitted to a part-time bench function quite than an on a regular basis starter’s one on a contending workforce.
Including every other high quality infielder would permit the Blue Jays to raised deploy Biggio and Espsinal situationally, exposing them to the matchups and instances through which they’re perhaps to prevail. In the meantime, it’d bump Kevin Smith all the way down to triple-A, the place he’d proceed his building with common enjoying time whilst offering a essential layer of intensity in opposition to inevitable damage forward of him at the intensity chart.
No longer that we ever in point of fact had to get this deep into it. A high-level survey of the Blue Jays’ roster finds a crowded outfield image, younger intensity at the back of the plate, and generational skills enjoying shortstop and primary base. That leaves 2d and 3rd as essentially the most logical spaces to improve and upload offensive oomph to this lineup. And if the Blue Jays need to win their department, that improve can be extra necessity than luxurious.
Inner choices (FanGraphs ZIPS projections)
With Toronto’s subsequent wave of probably impactful infield skill nonetheless uncooked and congregated on the decrease ranges of the minors — none of Orelvis Martinez, Leo Jimenez, Rikelbin De Castro, Manuel Beltre, or Estiven Machado are sufficiently old to drink legally in america — it’s tricky to peer the Blue Jays addressing their infield shortcoming from inside.
Smith and Otto Lopez every made their MLB debuts closing season and can most probably have intensity roles to play at the 2022 Blue Jays when damage inevitably moves. However neither boast the monitor file or pedigree to indicate they’re in a position to generating frequently within the majors on a win-now workforce. Non-roster application infielder Gosuke Katoh may just consider, as effectively, however the Blue Jays unquestionably aren’t counting at the 27-year-old profession minor-leaguer to make a large impression.
In the meantime, 22-year-old Jordan Groshans remains to be gathering the enjoying time essential to expand and maximize the equipment that made him a 2018 first-round select, having performed simply 99 video games during the last 3 seasons due to accidents and a plague. He might but emerge as Toronto’s 3rd baseman of the long run, in particular if he can hit the bottom operating this yr in his first style of triple-A. However a late-2022 MLB debut is a best-case state of affairs at this level and the Blue Jays want a lot more coming near near assist.
Unfastened agent choices (FanGraphs ZIPS projections)
Signing Carlos Correa for north of $325-million and transferring him off shortstop turns out slightly far-fetched; as does prying Freddie Freeman clear of Atlanta and transferring Guerrero around the diamond to a place he hasn’t performed in two years and wasn’t in particular excellent at when he did. However Bryant’s simply at the back of the ones two atop the loose agent marketplace if the Blue Jays have room so as to add every other mega deal to their payroll at the different aspect of the lockout. And of the 3, he’s the perfect have compatibility.
The 30-year-old performed a minimum of 92 innings to start with, 3rd, and all 3 outfield spots in 2021, demonstrating the defensive versatility he may just convey the Blue Jays past their obtrusive house for him on the sizzling nook. And with a .278/.376/.504 line and 134 wRC+ for his profession, Bryant’s the most productive wager this aspect of Correa and Freeman to switch Semien’s elite manufacturing.
In the end, it’ll come down as to if the Blue Jays each have price range for and spot cost within the Semien-esque dedication — the Rangers dished out seven years and $175-million for a much less flexible participant a yr older than Bryant — it’ll most probably take to signal him.
Tale performed each 2d and 3rd on his manner up Colorado’s minor-league gadget, and whilst proceeding to maximise his huge energy and pace equipment as a shortstop is undoubtedly the purpose, it’s imaginable he received’t in finding a lot of a post-lockout marketplace of bidders each in a position to giving him Javy Baez cash — six-years, $140-million — and needy on the place.
Possibly that’s the place the Blue Jays are available. Tale’s athleticism and traditionally robust defensive numbers ought to permit him to make the transition to both sides of shortstop, the place his energy bat would unquestionably play. Relocating to homer-happy Rogers Centre would additionally decrease one of the Coors Box handicap for a participant whose house/highway splits are inconceivable to forget about.
Tale’s in a difficult spot: tied to draft select reimbursement, coming off a down yr offensively, a loose agent amid a historical elegance at his place. The Blue Jays may just attempt to promote him on a non permanent, value-reestablishing deal that provides him the chance to reenter the marketplace off a greater platform season and with fewer top class shortstop choices to be had. That bet-on-yourself design labored out beautiful effectively for Semien.
But when Tale’s no longer within the Semien direction, this generally is a very pricey choice — one who would possibly see the Blue Jays paying for a number of years of decline so as to add every other right-handed energy bat to a lineup already stuffed with them. Tale wouldn’t be a impressive have compatibility in that state of affairs. However both manner, the drop off from him and Bryant to the remainder of the loose agent choices is really extensive.
Like, tremendous really extensive. Villar is the following very best loose agent closing at 2d or 3rd base and it wouldn’t be a surprise to peer him emerge from the scramble to fill roster holes previous to spring coaching with a two-year deal. However for the Blue Jays to be that workforce could be quite of a surprise, in particular after Villar’s calamitous, post-2020-trade-deadline stretch with the membership through which he hit .188/.278/.203 over 79 plate appearances.
However no longer for not anything, Villar’s tough 2020 is surrounded by means of a 107-wRC+, 3.9-WAR season in 2019, and a 105-wRC+, 2.1-WAR marketing campaign in 2021. He’s been an invaluable application participant all over his profession and projection techniques see him as a forged contributor going ahead. And if the Blue Jays strike out somewhere else, they’ll need to imagine a reunion.
Not one of the above could be a long-term resolution, however any of this trio may just function a non permanent prevent hole if Toronto’s pursuit of a higher-impact infielder comes up empty. On the very least, they’d give the Blue Jays every other confirmed, veteran bat on a low-risk, one-year deal, permitting the membership to reconsider its instances in-season and hunt for a extra really extensive improve on the commerce cut-off date.
Harrison can play both 2d or 3rd, and whilst he doesn’t upload a lot thump to a batting order, the two-time all-star a minimum of makes various touch and has labored his strategy to a 104 wRC+ and 1.8 WAR over 649 plate appearances since 2020.
The left-handed hitting Miller can shield almost anyplace, however his three-true-outcomes bat is most effective playable as a part of a platoon. He might be 2022’s Corey Dickerson with the additional benefit of extra positional versatility.
At 34, Solano is coming off a quietly productive three-season stretch through which he’s hit .308/.354/.435 with a 114 wRC+ whilst most commonly enjoying 2d base. There isn’t a lot in his peripheral numbers to indicate he can maintain this late-career breakout, however he does constantly put the ball in play and will duvet at 3rd or shortstop in a pinch.
Possible commerce objectives (FanGraphs ZIPS projections)
Possibly you’ve heard this title prior to? A switch-hitter with a excessive stroll charge, low strikeout charge, and outstanding quality-of-contact peripherals, Ramirez carries probably the most recreation’s maximum well-rounded bats at his place. And bearing in mind how effectively he’d have compatibility, the Blue Jays are going to be hooked up to the 3rd baseman till he’s now not a Dad or mum.
That turns out just a topic of time. Cleveland isn’t normally within the trade of paying marketplace charges for elite gamers like Ramirez, and the chance window for the group to transport his extraordinarily payroll-efficient contract — Ramirez will earn $12-million this season and carries a $14-million 2023 membership choice — for a good-looking prospect bundle is hastily final.
After all, the Guardians may just wait till the commerce cut-off date and even subsequent low season to drag that cause. Ramirez’s player-unfriendly deal is actually the one assured cash on Cleveland’s books going ahead, getting rid of force to commerce him barring an be offering too excellent to refuse. Within the period in-between, Ramirez would possibly simply assist his present membership contend for a place in an expanded postseason. And isn’t that the purpose of this complete factor?
Making an allowance for the truth he’s more youthful, extra flexible defensively, and has posted the next wRC+ since 2019, Marte may just arguably be a greater addition for the Blue Jays than Ramirez. To mention not anything of the 28-year-old’s much more ludicrously below-market contract, which owes him $8-million in 2022 with membership choices of $10-million and $12-million within the following seasons.
However as with Cleveland and Ramirez, it continues to be noticed how motivated Arizona is to commerce its very best participant. You’ll’t squint on the Diamondbacks and spot a possible 2022 playoff outfit like you’ll be able to with the Guardians. However the 3 years of membership keep an eye on the workforce holds over Marte eliminates urgency to make a transfer for anything else lower than a top class go back.
Ramirez and Marte is probably not at the commerce block as soon as MLB’s transaction freeze lifts, however Chapman virtually veritably will because the Oakland Athletics face a self-imposed payroll squeeze that can most probably spur them to transport gifted core items for wage aid. Projected to earn $9.5-million this season via arbitration, Chapman’s probably the most larger cost-saving levers Oakland’s entrance place of job may just pull. And as an elite defender at 3rd base with a whole lot of energy in his bat, the 28-year-old should be centered by means of various golf equipment.
On paper, Chapman’s no longer a great have compatibility for Toronto. His line power, hard-hit, and chase charges were trending within the incorrect course. And, purely for the sake of a extra balanced lineup that includes much less redundancy, the Blue Jays would favor a left-handed bat with an method much less predicated at the recreation’s 3 true results. However beggars can’t be choosers. And it’s imaginable Chapman’s the most productive infielder to be had to the Blue Jays as soon as the lockout’s via.
After signing Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha prior to the lockout, the Mets have created a place participant logjam that can require clearing previous to opening day. Considered one of a number of gamers with out a herbal roster have compatibility is Davis, a well-rounded right-handed hitter who’s posted a 130 wRC+ and four.5 WAR over just about 900 plate appearances since 2019.
Davis isn’t a powerful defender at 3rd base and carries some damage fear after struggling with a left hand factor closing season that in the long run required surgical operation. However all of the 28-year-old has performed every time and anywhere he’s performed constantly is hit. And with 3 seasons of membership keep an eye on closing, together with a projected $2.7-million wage via arbitration in 2022, the Blue Jays may just simply make room for a puzzle piece the Mets don’t have an obtrusive have compatibility for.
It’s tricky to mention what to anticipate going ahead from DeJong, who began his profession placing up a 108 wRC+ and 10.6 WAR via his first 3 seasons prior to posting under league-average campaigns in 2020 and ’21. Simply because it’s tricky to mention whether or not the St. Louis Cardinals be expecting to transport ahead with DeJong at shortstop.
As his rocky 2021 persevered, DeJong first plummeted within the batting order, then conceded substantial enjoying time to Edmundo Sosa all over a playoff push, and in the long run was once disregarded of the lineup within the NL Wild Card recreation. However following the season, the Cardinals expressed public self belief in DeJong bouncing again and instructed they be expecting him to reclaim the shortstop process he seemed to lose closing season.
Whether or not the membership’s movements align with its phrases continues to be noticed. But when there’s a touch that DeJong — owed $15-million over the following two seasons with a couple of membership choices past that — might be to be had, the Blue Jays might need to make a decision and spot if there’s a buy-low alternative.
All through his struggles, DeJong — a 2d baseman in faculty and basically a 3rd baseman as a minor-leaguer — has endured to submit forged barrel charges and flash the facility doable (.194 ISO in 2021) that fuelled his spectacular, early-career manufacturing. Nonetheless simply 28, it’s no longer out of the query that he may just in finding some changes to fortify his high quality of touch and earn extra harm from the constantly excessive fly ball charges he’s posted all over his profession.
It’s no longer the design, however there’s at all times an opportunity the Blue Jays aren’t ready to procure probably the most extra obtrusive impression infielders to be had for one explanation why or every other. And with the fast turnaround from the top of the lockout to opening day most effective serving to extend force and urgency so as to add somebody who can play 2d or 3rd, the membership will have to regulate its attractions and search an artistic alternative to deal with its infield want.
May just the floundering Royals glance to transport on from a veteran infielder similar to Merrifield or Mondesi with Nicky Lopez setting up himself as a succesful big-leaguer, whilst peak potentialities Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto close to their MLB debuts?
Do the rebuilding Cubs proceed the veteran sell-off they initiated on the commerce cut-off date and transfer Happ, a switch-hitter who flourishes in opposition to right-handed pitching and contours up in every single place the diamond?
Is there a possible framework to construct with the Phillies, a membership that desperately wishes outfield assist, through which the Blue Jays turn Randal Grichuk for certainly one of Gregorius or Segura?
Those received’t be the Blue Jays’ most popular choices, however they’re choices the membership may just in finding itself bearing in mind as names fly off the board within the days and weeks following the lockout. The membership buying and selling from its outfield intensity to procure an infielder unquestionably has some advantage, in particular if it then turns round and indicators a top class left-handed hitting outfielder similar to Michael Conforto or Kyle Schwarber. Even Eddie Rosario or Joc Pederson may just make sense as platoon choices to backfill for the subtraction of an outfielder by means of commerce.
There are numerous roads the Blue Jays may just take as soon as MLB reopens for trade; numerous tactics so as to add anticipated wins to a roster that wishes as a lot of them as it will probably get. However all of the ones roads result in the Blue Jays including an infielder. For this workforce to contend, no improve is extra essential.
